Probabilistic seismic hazard maps for South Africa

Abstract

Many years have passed since previous national seismic hazard maps were prepared for South Africa. In those maps, zone-less techniques were applied. The availability of more reliable seismicity and geological data has made it possible to update those maps using probabilistic seismic hazard analysis methodologies that take into consideration all available data. This paper presents a summary of the work conducted to produce the latest seismic hazard maps for South Africa. This involved the systematic compilation and homogenisation of an earthquake catalogue, which comprised both historical and instrumental events. The catalogue played a prominent role in the preparation and characterisation of the seismic source model. Two ground motion prediction equations were identified from available international models for regions that are tectonically similar to South Africa. These two models were then implemented in the hazard calculations, which were done using the OPENQUAKE software. Uncertainties associated with input parameters in both the seismic source and ground motion models were taken into account and implemented using the logic tree technique. Maps showing distribution of acceleration at three periods (0.0s, 0.15s and 2.0s) computed for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years were produced.