Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Mangalore and Its Adjoining Regions, A Part of Indian Peninsular: An Intraplate Region

Abstract

The Southwestern part of India investigated in the present study mainly comprises of states such as Goa, north Kerala and a major portion of Karnataka. A comprehensive regional seismic catalog has been compiled spanning over 190 years apart from a few prehistoric events from the early 16th century. The classical Cornel–McGuire approach has been incorporated in the estimation of seismic hazard. The seismic sources are modeled as area sources and the entire study region is divided into four seismogenic source zones. The uncertainties involved in the formulation of the seismic source model and ground motion prediction model has been discussed in detail. Further, the procedure for selecting appropriate GMPEs involves the evaluation of multidimensional (M, R, T) ground motion trends and performance against observed macroseismic data. The epistemic uncertainty in the estimation of seismicity parameters and ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) has been addressed using logic tree computation. The results of the hazard analysis demonstrate that the existing seismic code underestimates the seismic potential of seismic zone II (BIS 1893) areas. The de-aggregation of the predicted seismic hazard revealed earthquakes of magnitude range (Mw) 4–6 occurring within a distance of 35kms to be most influential for any given site of interest. Sensitivity analysis has been performed for crucial input parameters in the formulation of seismic source and ground motion models. Site amplification study has been carried out using topographic slope as a proxy to shear velocity in the top 30 m (Vs30). A maximum of 60% to 80% amplification has been observed in the study area. The seismic hazard maps in terms of PGA have been plotted for the seismic hazard estimated at the bedrock level as well as the surface level for 2% and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The hazard estimation specifically for the southern part of the west coast is the first of its kind. The investigation suspects mining-induced seismicity in Bellary and Raichur districts though there is no mention of this in the prior literature.