Abstract
Abstract The urban energy system (UES) with the distribution electricity network (DEN) and distribution gas network can achieve a multiple-energy utilization. However, massive uncertainties in an UES will pose potential risks to the secure operation of both networks. This paper proposes a probabilistic energy flow (PEF) framework considering correlated uncertainties in photovoltaic outputs and loads, operation modes, as well as asymmetrically three-phase characteristic of DEN. The Monte Carlo Simulation method based on Latin Hypercube Sampling and Nataf transformation is then adopted to solve the PEF problem. Numerical results obtained from a sample UES demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed PEF framework and disclose the effects of uncertainties, correlations and operation modes on the operation of the UES.
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