Probabilistic Energy Flow Analysis of MCE System Considering Various Coupling Units and the Uncertainty of Distribution Generators

Jiming Chen,Qianyu Yu,Qiying Li,Chaolin Li,Zhuoran Lin

doi:10.1109/access.2019.2931398

Jiming Chen, Qianyu Yu + Show 3 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1109/access.2019.2931398

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Abstract

The deep interdependence between electrical and natural gas system has great influence on the security of multi-carrier energy (MCE) systems. The large-scale access to distribution generation (DG) of clean energy makes it necessary to investigate the effects of uncertainties on the safe and stable operation of MCE systems. However, the existing probabilistic energy flow analysis for MCE systems pays little attention to the difference between the correlation of various DG during calculating the energy flow. Therefore, this paper investigates the probabilistic energy flow considering the uncertainties and correlations of various DG. A framework of MCE systems considering various coupling units including power to gas (P2G) and energy hub is initially proposed. For this, the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method based on Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) and Nataf transformation is specially designed to calculate the energy flow for each sample. The energy flow calculation method is composed of three-phase AC/DC alternating iteration method and improved Newton node mesh method considering the control mode of compressors. Finally, the test system containing improved IEEE123-node system and NGS48-node system have verified the accuracy of the proposed probabilistic energy flow calculation method.

Highlights

With the increasing utilization of co-generation plants, natural gas power generation and power-to-gas(P2G) technology [1]–[3], the coupling degree between power system and natural gas system is becoming stronger and stronger [4], [5], which makes multi-carrier energy (MCE) systems become the development trend and main carrier of future energy system [6], [7]
Probabilistic energy flow analysis for MCE systems is considered as the cornerstone for further studies
For MCE systems, a probabilistic energy flow algorithm for MCE systems based on point estimation method is presented in [17], which takes into account the randomness of power systems, natural gas systems and heat networks

Summary

INTRODUCTION

With the increasing utilization of co-generation plants, natural gas power generation and power-to-gas(P2G) technology [1]–[3], the coupling degree between power system and natural gas system is becoming stronger and stronger [4], [5], which makes multi-carrier energy (MCE) systems become the development trend and main carrier of future energy system [6], [7]. In [12], a framework of integrated electrical and multi-source gas systems was initially proposed, in which the correlation between varying energy demands and wind power is considered. For MCE systems, a probabilistic energy flow algorithm for MCE systems based on point estimation method is presented in [17], which takes into account the randomness of power systems, natural gas systems and heat networks. 2) A probabilistic energy flow calculation model considering the uncertainties and correlations of various DG is proposed, and the MCS method based on LHS and Nataf transformation is developed to solve it. 3) The uncertainties and correlations of DG including wind power generation and PV power generation are discussed and modeled by non-normal distribution, and their influence on MCE systems is analyzed.

MCE SYSTEMS MODELLING

CASE STUDIES CONCLUSION