Optimal design of low-carbon energy systems towards sustainable cities under climate change scenarios

Abstract

The design of low-carbon energy systems towards sustainable cities requires correctly quantifying uncertainties in future climate variations, since they affect both energy demand of urban cities and energy system performance. However, quantifying climate uncertainties is challenging due to the stochastic and unpredictable nature of future climate events. This paper develops a novel and general framework to quantify climate uncertainties for urban energy system design using scenario-based stochastic optimization. Climate models are coupled with building performance simulation to generate scenarios for uncertainty quantification and energy system optimization. We apply this optimization framework to US cities for demonstration. We find that climate uncertainties in renewable generation and energy demand can lead to significant performance differences in urban energy systems. Neglecting climate uncertainties results in an optimistic energy system; however, it is unable to provide stable power supply to urban cities. Moreover, we observe that maintaining a certain degree of grid integration is beneficial for urban energy systems and can alleviate the economic burden of urban cities. Finally, we provide some valuable insights on urban energy systems for system designer and policymakers. The designers should fully consider uncertainties associated with various climate events during system design and deploy proper backup systems in case of contingency. The policymakers should thoroughly account for climate uncertainties and their resulting costs when stipulating energy policies for promoting low-carbon energy systems. Both designers and policymakers need to cooperate together and coordinate their actions on urban energy systems towards sustainable cities.