PREVISÃO DE FABRICAÇÃO DE CARROS BICOMBUSTÍVEIS E DE DEMANDA DE ETANOL NO BRASIL EM 2014

Abstract

Brazil is currently set up as an important worldwide example in relation to the successful incorporation of biofuel ethanol in its energy matrix. The article examines the impacts of biofuel technology insertion (flex fuel) and estimated, using the methodology Fisher-Pry, the evolution of the total vehicle fleet with this technology in Brazil in 2014. In addition, we performed a prediction of future demand for ethanol, using the technique of Gompertz, also for the year 2014. Both methodologies were checked through STATA statistical system. The study relied on data from January 2005 to October 2009, which were extrapolated to December 2014. The Fisher-Pry model was used to prepare the scenario analysis of the replacement of cars with conventional technology (gasoline), for cars with flex fuel technology. As a result, the projection showed an increase of 18.2 percentage points in five years, rising from 78.4% recorded in October 2009, to 96.6% in December 2014. As a premise, we considered the continuity of the prices of ethanol and gasoline observed between jan/02 Oct/2009 and that shows ethanol being marketed at a price below the minimum necessary to make this renewable fuel competitive with gasoline in 88 of 95 months. The Gompertz model indicated that ethanol will represent approximately 43.9% of all fuel sold by distributors at the end of 2014, whereas today this share is only 18.2%.