Predictors of terrorist use of suicide attacks: group age and state power

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ABSTRACT This study investigates the question of why terrorist groups differ in how frequently they conduct suicide attacks. The study provides a novel explanation for the tactical choices of terrorist groups, demonstrating the key roles of group age, initial adoption of suicide attacks, and state military strength. The effect of these factors is tested through a quantitative analysis of a dataset assembled from multiple publicly-available datasets. The constructed dataset includes 140 terrorist groups active between 1998 and 2012. The analysis finds that as groups increase in age, they conduct fewer suicide attacks, as they are more likely to possess skilled operatives and have the capacity to carry out complex operations. The results also show that groups that adopted suicide terror as a tactic later in their existence carry out fewer suicide attacks, due to organizations relying on established practices and procedures. In addition, as state troop levels increase, the frequency of suicide attacks rises, likely as a response to increased security pressure and target hardening. The implications of these findings for counter-terrorism policy include the need for heightened security measures against suicide attacks by emerging groups and preparing for potential increases in suicide attacks as state military pressure intensifies.