Abstract
The present study predicted a pest scenario of pheromone trap catch of adults of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. The relationship between temperature and adult pheromone trap catch was quantified using historical insect pest data obtained from respective locations and these models were adopted to predict the future pest scenarios during three decadal periods of ‘near future’ (NF-2021-2050) viz., I (2021–2030), II (2031–2040) and III (2041–2050). It is predicted that the moth catch would be higher (233) during all three future decades (172–233) than present period (93.46) at Dharwad location and similar trend was observed at other three locations with significant year wise variations. The present work indicates that the temperature could play a significant role in population dynamics of S. litura and it is likely that the pest incidence would be higher during future climate change scenario.
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