Abstract
The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM) of future data on daily maximum (T.max), minimum (T.min) air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1). This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF) -2020, Distant future (DF)-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF)—2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1–2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18–22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%), model (1.74%) and scenario (0.74%). The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods.
Highlights
The recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reconfirmed that earth’s surface temperature has increased by 0.78°C (0.72°C to 0.85°C) between the average of PLOS ONE | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0116762 February 11, 2015Model and Scenario Variations in Spodoptera litura analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript
It is predicted that T.max would increase by 0.51 to 3.75°C and Tmin by 0.49 to 6.11°C during future climate change periods (NF, Distant future (DF) and Very Distant future (VDF)) of three emissions (A2, A1B and B1) at six locations of the country
Prediction of insect generations is possible by adopting growing degree days approach
Summary
The objective of the present study was to understand the impact of climate change on the number of generations of S. litura during future climate periods across major peanut growing locations in different states across India
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