Abstract
Based on the population, urbanization level, per capita GDP, industrial structure, energy technology and industry investment level from 2011 to 2020, this paper established a modified STIRPAT model, and analyzed the relationship between total carbon emissions and various influencing factors by utilizing the ridge regression. Subsequently, by virtue of the scenario analysis method, for different scenarios, Anji County predicted the time to reach the peak of carbon emissions. The research results show that the population, urbanization level, per capita GDP, industrial structure, energy technology and industry investment level are related to the carbon emissions of Anji County, but the effect of each factor is different. By means of the scenario analysis of the STIRPAT model, it can be predicted that about Anji County will reach the target of peak carbon emissions by 2030 under the low carbon scenario. Finally, some positive and effective measures require to be taken, such as adjusting the energy structure, promoting technological innovation, and promoting energy-saving emission reduction measures.
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