Calculating carbon emissions and selecting carbon peak scheme for infrastructure construction in Liaoning Province, China

Abstract

Carbon emissions from infrastructure development in Liaoning Province are growing more significant. However, there is a lack of comprehensive research on predicting and analyzing carbon emission peaks in this context. Addressing this research gap is crucial for understanding emission trends and crafting effective reduction policies. This study employed a method that combines carbon emission factors with emergy, selecting six factors including urbanization rate, energy intensity, road infrastructure development, per capita emergy, energy density, and transportation structure. By combining the carbon-intensive and carbon-mitigating factors, the study estimated the carbon emissions from infrastructure construction in Liaoning Province. Using the STIRPAT model, the study predicted the future peak of carbon emissions from infrastructure construction in Liaoning Province. Four development scenarios were considered, namely, the inertia scenario, the mitigation scenario, the energy-saving scenario, and the low-carbon scenario, taking into account different combinations of economic and social development variables. In the low-carbon scenario, Scheme 13 was considered the optimal path for Liaoning Province to reach the peak of carbon emissions from infrastructure construction. This scheme adopts measures to maintain stable economic development, improve energy utilization efficiency, and optimize transportation structures. However, this study has certain limitations. Potential uncertainties in data completeness and quality may affect the findings. Additionally, the applicability of the results could be restricted since this study solely focuses on carbon emissions from infrastructure construction in Liaoning Province, limiting its generalizability due to geographic constraints.