Abstract
The realization of carbon emissions peak is important in the energy base area of China for the sustainable development of the socio-economic sector. The STIRPAT model was employed to analyze the elasticity of influencing factors of carbon emissions during 1990–2010 in the Xinjiang autonomous region, China. The results display that population growth is the key driving factor for carbon emissions, while energy intensity is the key restraining factor. With 1% change in population, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, energy intensity, energy structure, urbanization level, and industrial structure, the change in carbon emissions was 0.80%, 0.48%, 0.20%, 0.07%, 0.58%, and 0.47%, respectively. Based on the results from regression analysis, scenario analysis was employed in this study, and it was found that Xinjiang would be difficult to realize carbon emissions peak early around 2030. Under the condition of the medium-high change rates in energy intensity, energy structure, industrial structure, and with the low-medium change rates in population, GDP per capita, and urbanization level, Xinjiang will achieve carbon emissions peak at of 626.21, 636.24, 459.53, and 662.25 million tons in the year of 2030, 2030, 2040, and 2040, respectively. At last, under the background of Chinese carbon emissions peak around 2030, this paper puts forward relevant policies and suggestions to the sustainable socio-economic development for the energy base area, Xinjiang autonomous region.
Highlights
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) confirms that the concentration of greenhouse gases has significantly increased since the Industrial Revolution, which accelerated the speed of climate change primarily characterized by global warming [1]
We used the STIRPAT model to explore the relationship between carbon emissions with population, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, energy intensity, urbanization rate, energy and industrial structure in an energy base, Xinjiang autonomous region, China
Based on the reliable fitting results and comparison verification, scenarios analysis was adopted to project carbon emissions and put forward relevant policy measures and suggestions to achieve sustainable socio-economic development
Summary
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) confirms that the concentration of greenhouse gases has significantly increased since the Industrial Revolution, which accelerated the speed of climate change primarily characterized by global warming [1]. China promised at the Paris Agreement to increase the percentage of renewable energy in energy consumption structure to 20% and to cut 60–65% of the energy intensity in 2030 when compared to the 2005 levels, and make the best efforts to peak carbon emissions around 2030 [6] How to realize this promise without compromising the socio-economic development has become an important issue that needs to be solved urgently. Some provinces have increased the percentage of renewable energy, while energy base areas remain dependent on coal consumption [38] In this condition, there is great significance to forecast and analyze the provincial carbon emissions and put forward reduction strategy in consideration of huge variation across different provinces [5]. The population and GDP projection in Xinjiang (2020–2050) were obtained from the Projection of Population and Economy to 2100 Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways in China [46,47]
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