The strategy of a low-carbon economy based on the STIRPAT and SD models

Abstract

With the rapid development of certain nations' economies, CO2 emissions have become a major concern worldwide. Controlling and stabilizing CO2 emissions is the primary goal of a low carbon society. The STIRPAT model aims to find the driving forces that contribute to carbon emissions, while the SD model is one of the decision-making tools used to analyze complex urban environmental issues. This paper combined these two models and effectively identified the key driving forces of CO2 emissions at the scale of Wanquan town. These driving forces included the population, the urbanization level, the per capita GDP, the industrial structure, and the energy intensity. The contribution degrees of the driving forces to the change in CO2 emissions from the STIRPAT model suggested that population growth is the key driving factor, while industrial structures and affluence followed closely. A low carbon development pattern was also established by applying the STIRPAT and SD models together. Using the dynamic simulation of the SD model, an optimal scenario was selected under different development levels and the CO2 emissions were 72,868t and 78,699t in 2015 and 2020, respectively. A stable population growth, moderate industrialization and urbanization level, reasonable industrial structure, and low energy consumption are the regional development priorities for energy saving and emission reduction.