Prediction and Foreign Policy Heritage

Abstract

Stenelo, L.-G. Prediction and Foreign Pclicy Heritage. Cooperation and Conflict, XVI, 1981, 3-17. The author attempts to demonstrate that certain modes of prediction may have a conservat ory and stabilizing effect on the foreign policy of a state, and cause the foreign policy actor to accept the political heritage from previous generations of decision-makers. U.S. Vietnam policy is used as an illustrative case. The hereditary mechanisms treated are strategic evaluation systems, historical analogies, and theories such as the U.S. Domino Theory and Aggression Theory. It seems possible to discern a chain of hereditary links with the strategic evaluation systems maintaining a unifying function. Theories are less sensitive to disturbance and hence more capable of survival than single historical analogies.