Predicting Urban Expansion to Assess the Change of Landscape Character Types and Its Driving Factors in the Mountain City

Abstract

The urban landscape is being affected by rapid urbanization, leading to a complexity of land features and a fragmentation of patches. However, many studies have focused on the prediction of land-use change with a lack of research on the landscape character types which have more integrated descriptions of land features. Hence, this study predicts and identifies landscape character types (LCTs) in different periods based on the PLUS model and the K-Medoids algorithm, taking the central city of Chongqing as an example, to reveal the differences in the influence of driving factors on LCTs. The results show that (1) the urban landscape characteristic types present a gradient change from the built-up area to the outward expansion. (2) The SHDI and LPI of landscape character types decreased significantly with the expansion of construction land. (3) Nighttime light, distance from water bodies, and distance from the motorways are the main factors affecting the change of landscape character types. This study predicts and identifies urban landscape character types and quantifies the impact of urban expansion on landscape character. It can be used to guide urban planning and help governments to make more informed decisions on sustainable urban development and ecological conservation.