Abstract
Assessment of the potential impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources of rivers is important for future planning and management of water resources. The objective of this paper is to predict the impact of climate change on stream flow of Kulfo River. This study used Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and hypothetical climate change scenarios based on the fifth assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and by review different research papers on climate change to investigate the current and two future scenarios 2050s and 2080s stream flow magnitude in the River. The SWAT mode was calibrated and Validated against stream flow and attained coefficient of determination 0.81 and 0.92, and Nash Sutcliffe Efficient of 0.68 and 0.78 during calibration and validation respectively. The hypothetical climate scenarios were compared to the observed baseline period (1987-2014) and the potential impact of climate change on stream flow quantified as, the average annual stream flow of Kulfo River is projected to increase by 5.42%, in 2050s. In contrast it was found to give the maximum decrease in discharge by -8.2% in 2080s. Increasing temperature by 0.5°C decreased stream flow rates by 2.99% in 2050s while 10% drops in rainfall resulted in a stream flow reduction by 5.28% in 2080s. Overall, the results show that stream flow in the Kulfo River will be more sensitive to change in precipitation than change in temperature.
Highlights
Changes in precipitation patterns and air temperature due to climate change may alter the availability of water leading to new challenges for water resource planning and management in many regions throughout the world [1, 2]
The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2015) on climate change points out that the average annual global surface air temperature for 2081–2100 relative to 1986 –2005 is projected to likely be higher in the ranges 2.6°C to 4.8°C under high emission scenarios while sea level has risen by the year 2100 is 0.52 to 0.98 m, and these increases have been partially attributed to the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere [3]
The objective of this study is to predict climate change impacts on stream flow of Kulfo River, by using hydrological models, SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) with assumed plausible hypothetical climatic input scenarios according to the IPCC fifth assessment report
Summary
Changes in precipitation patterns and air temperature due to climate change may alter the availability (quality and quantity) of water leading to new challenges for water resource planning and management in many regions throughout the world [1, 2]. The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2015) on climate change points out that the average annual global surface air temperature for 2081–2100 relative to 1986 –2005 is projected to likely be higher in the ranges 2.6°C to 4.8°C under high emission scenarios while sea level has risen by the year 2100 is 0.52 to 0.98 m, and these increases have been partially attributed to the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere [3]. Such changes could affect the hydrological cycle. Ethiopia has twelve major river basins as shown in figure 1
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