Predicting the Determinants of Homicides Rates Across the ECOWAS Region, 1960-2020

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to predict the determinants of homicide crime across the ECOWAS region. The study used a correctional research design, with a sample size of 15 across the period ranging from 1960 to 2020. The study used a criterion variable of homicide rates, and the predictor variables to include development indicator-life expectancy at birth, economic inequality, youth unemployment, and sex-ratio. The study used SPSS to process and analyze the dataset which came from the following agencies: WHO, World Bank, UNDP, etc. The study used Ordinary Least Squared analysis to predict the determinants of high homicides rates across the ECOWAS region. The study finds the following: a weak inverse relationship between the life expectancy at birth and homicide (r = –0.317**) which is significant at 5% significance, moderately strong positive relationship between economic inequality and homicide (r = 0.657**) and a moderately strong inverse relationship between economic inequality and development (r = –0.548**). Also, the study finds a weak negative association between homicide and sex-ratio (-0.287*). While unemployment exhibited a strong positive significant associated with homicide (r=0.795). Above all the study finds that about 76.5% variations in the homicide crime could be attributed to the following variables, such as life expectancy at birth or the level of development, economic inequality, youth unemployment, and sex ratio. Keywords: Homicide, Crime, ECOWAS, Unemployment, Inequality, Development, Life Expectancy, Gini-Index DOI: 10.7176/DCS/12-7-02 Publication date: September 30 th 2022