Abstract
Brontispa longissima (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae), a significant pest of palm plants worldwide, has caused huge economic losses in China since its invasion. The maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and geographical information system (GIS) software were used to predict the adaptive impact of climate change on B. longissima in China. Future distributions of B. longissima were modeled under three climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) to predict suitable areas in the 2050s and 2080s. Under the current climatic conditions, the range of suitable areas of B. longissima in China is 97.86–121.97° E and 15.73–29.07° N. The total high suitable area is 242135.42 km2, accounting for 2.52% of the total area of China. The predicted future distribution is extended under most conditions, except for the low suitable area under the RCP2.6 scenario in the 2050s. Precipitation of June (prec6), mean temperature of June (tmin6), annual precipitation (bio12) and precipitation of warmest quarter (bio18) were selected as important environmental variables that affected the potential distribution. This work provides an important reference and theoretical basis for the prevention and control of B. longissima in the future.
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