Abstract
ObjectiveBacterial canker of kiwifruit caused by Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae (Psa) is a major threat to the kiwifruit industry throughout the world and accounts for substantial economic losses in China. The aim of the present study was to test and explore the possibility of using MaxEnt (maximum entropy models) to predict and analyze the future large-scale distribution of Psa in China.MethodBased on the current environmental factors, three future climate scenarios, which were suggested by the fifth IPCC report, and the current distribution sites of Psa, MaxEnt combined with ArcGIS was applied to predict the potential suitable areas and the changing trend of Psa in China. The jackknife test and correlation analysis were used to choose dominant climatic factors. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) drawn by MaxEnt was used to evaluate the accuracy of the simulation.ResultThe results showed that under current climatic conditions, the area from latitude 25° to 36°N and from longitude 101° to 122°E is the primary potential suitable area of Psa in China. The highly suitable area (with suitability between 66 and 100) was mainly concentrated in Northeast Sichuan, South Shaanxi, most of Chongqing, West Hubei and Southwest Gansu and occupied 4.94% of land in China. Under different future emission scenarios, both the areas and the centers of the suitable areas all showed differences compared with the current situation. Four climatic variables, i.e., maximum April temperature (19%), mean temperature of the coldest quarter (14%), precipitation in May (11.5%) and minimum temperature in October (10.8%), had the largest impact on the distribution of Psa.ConclusionThe MaxEnt model is potentially useful for forecasting the future adaptive distribution of Psa under climate change, and it provides important guidance for comprehensive management.
Highlights
Kiwifruit, Actinidiaceae, Actinidia Lindl., is a type of perennial, deciduous woody liana and an important class of berry fruit
In an effort to analyze the effects of climate change on the potential distribution of Psa, MaxEnt was utilized to model the current niches of Psa in China, as well as the future Psa niches under climate change scenarios; this study identified climatic variables important for the potential establishment of Psa
From the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) curves, AUC values were used to evaluate the performance of the MaxEnt model
Summary
Actinidiaceae, Actinidia Lindl., is a type of perennial, deciduous woody liana and an important class of berry fruit. The main areas of kiwifruit production in China are in the northern foot of the Qinling Mountains in Shaanxi Province, the Dabie Mountain area in Anhui Province, Heping County in Guangdong Province, Guizhou Plateau, western part of Hunan Province, and Northwest Sichuan Province. Kiwifruit is economically very important, and production reached 3.26 million tonnes per year as of 2013. China is the largest kiwifruit producer, with more than 1.77 million tonnes per year, placing China ahead of Italy. The kiwifruit industry, which developed quickly in recent years, has become one of the specialty industries in China that promotes agricultural development [3, 4]
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