Predicting the abatement rates of soil organic carbon sequestration management in Western European vineyards using random forest regression

Abstract

The implementation of soil organic carbon sequestration (SCS) practices on agricultural land has the potential to help to mitigate climate change at the global level. However, our understanding of the extent to which viticultural soils can contribute to this global effort remains limited. In this study, we used a random forest regression to predict the change in soil organic carbon stocks in vineyards of Western Europe under five SCS practices: organic amendments (OA), cover cropping (CC), organic amendments and no-tillage (OA+NT), no-tillage and cover cropping (NT+CC), and a combination of organic amendments, no-tillage and cover cropping (OA+NT+CC). The abatement rate of each SCS practice was modelled and mapped for six countries in Western Europe: Spain, France, Italy, Portugal, Germany and Austria. Overall, the highest abatement rate was reached under OA+NT+CC (8.29 ​Mg CO 2 -eq. ha −1 yr −1 ), whereas the lowest was observed under CC (7.03 Mg CO 2 -eq. ha −1 yr −1 ). Results showed major differences in abatement rates at the regional and national level. Despite these differences, the adoption of SCS practices was associated with a high abatement potential in the six countries and should be encouraged in the viticulture sector as a way to offset greenhouse gas emissions via soil carbon sequestration. • Soil carbon sequestration was modelled in vineyards using random forest regression. • Random forest regression provided accurate predictions. • All modelled practices were associated with high abatement rates in vineyards. • The highest abatement rate was reached in the Canary Islands under OA+NT+CC. • Vineyards can contribute to global climate change mitigation efforts.