Predicting and calibrating height to crown base: a case for Dahurian larch (Larix gmelinii Rupr.) in Northeastern China

Abstract

The applicability of height to crown base (HCB) appears to be particularly broad given the important impact on explaining tree growth dynamics. Given the high cost of measuring HCB, accurate prediction with a few trees is popular in forestry practice. In this study, a fixed-effects model (FEM), a mixed-effects model (MEM), and quantile regressions (QR) were adopted to predict HCB using data from natural secondary forests of Dahurian larch ( Larix gmelinii Rupr.) in Northeastern China. Corresponding calibration techniques were applied to trees with different sample designs (random selection, the thickest tree selection, the intermediate tree selection, and the thinnest tree selection) and sample sizes (1–10 trees per plot). The results showed that all models achieved accurate HCB predictions. The QR calibration technique of 3-quantiles achieved simple and accurate consequences compared to 5-quantiles and 9-quantiles. MEM displayed the most robust and superior statistics. The selection of the two thickest trees was recommended for the MEM. For FEM and QR, the sample size should be exceeded by 5. Generally, a combination of MEM and sampling two thickest trees per plot to predict HCB is recommended as a win–win solution that neither sacrifices model prediction accuracy nor minimizes the required measurement cost.