Precipitation reconstruction for the southern Altay Mountains (China) from tree rings of Siberian spruce, reveals recent wetting trend

Abstract

We developed six tree-ring width chronologies of Siberian spruce (Picea obovata) from the low elevation forest of the southern Altay Mountains in northern Xinjiang, China. Although the six chronologies come from different sampling sites, significant correlations existed among the chronologies (r≥0.477), and the first principal component (PC1) accounted for 72.2% of total variance over their common period 1825–2010. Correlation response analysis revealed that radial growth of Siberian spruce is mainly limited by a 12-month precipitation starting from July of the previous year to June of the current year. We therefore developed a July–June precipitation reconstruction spanning 1825–2009, which explained 65.5% of the instrumental variance for the period 1962–2009. The information of our precipitation reconstruction suggested that dry conditions existed for the periods 1829–1838, 1852–1855, 1876–1888, 1898–1911, 1919–1923, 1932–1936, 1943–1955, 1963–1968, 1973–1984 and 2007–2009, and wet conditions for the periods AD 1825–1828, 1839–1851, 1856–1875, 1889–1897, 1912–1918, 1924–1931, 1937–1942, 1956–1962, 1969–1972 and 1985–2006. Spatial climate correlation analyses with gridded land surface data revealed that our precipitation reconstruction contains a strong precipitation signal for the Altay Mountain ranges. Our reconstruction agreed with the moisture-sensitive tree ring width series of Siberian larch from the Altay Mountains of Mongolia on a decadal timescale. In addition, in contrast to a drying trend in north central China, a clear wetting trend has occurred in the southern Altay Mountains since 1980s.