A Tree-Ring-Based Precipitation Reconstruction since 1760 CE from Northeastern Tibetan Plateau, China

Abstract

Hydroclimatic conditions and related water resources change in the Tibetan Plateau is one of the main concerns for future sustainable development in China. This study presents a 254-year precipitation reconstruction from August of the previous year to June of the current year for the northeastern Tibetan Plateau based on tree-ring width data of tree-ring cores of Picea crassifolia from three sampling sites. The precipitation reconstruction explained 51.4% of the variance in instrumental precipitation during the calibration period 1958–2013. Dry periods with precipitation below the 254-year average value occurred during 1848–1865, 1873–1887, 1898–1923, and 1989–2003, and wet periods (precipitation above the mean) occurred during 1769–1785, 1798–1833, 1924–1938, 1957–1968, and 2004–2013. Spatial correlation analyses with the precipitation gridded dataset showed that our reconstruction contains some strong regional-scale precipitation signals for the upper Yellow River Basin. Our precipitation reconstruction also agreed in general with other dendroclimatic precipitation reconstructions from surrounding regions. In addition, reconstructed precipitation changes were consistent with the streamflow variation of the Yellow River.