Potentials of Renewable Energy Sources in Germany and the Influence of Land Use Datasets

Abstract

Potential analyses identify possible locations for renewable energy installations, such as wind turbines and photovoltaic arrays. The results of previous potential studies for Germany, however, are not consistent due to different assumptions, methods, and datasets being used. For example, different land-use datasets are applied in the literature to identify suitable areas for technologies requiring open land. For the first time, commonly used datasets are compared regarding the area and position of identified features to analyze their impact on potential analyses. It is shown that the use of Corine Land Cover is not recommended as it leads to potential area overestimation in a typical wind potential analyses by a factor of 4.7 and 5.2 in comparison to Basis-DLM and Open Street Map, respectively. Furthermore, we develop scenarios for onshore wind, offshore wind, and open-field photovoltaic potential estimations based on land-eligibility analyses using the land-use datasets that were proven to be best by our pre-analysis. Moreover, we calculate the rooftop photovoltaic potential using 3D building data nationwide for the first time. The potentials have a high sensitivity towards exclusion conditions, which are also currently discussed in public. For example, if restrictive exclusions are chosen for the onshore wind analysis the necessary potential for climate neutrality cannot be met. The potential capacities and possible locations are published for all administrative levels in Germany in the freely accessible database (Tool for Renewable Energy Potentials—Database), for example, to be incorporated into energy system models.