Potential Trade-Offs Between Future Economic Growth and Open Land Conservation Adjacent to Public Protected Areas: A Case Study in Northwest Montana

Abstract

Potential trade-offs between future economic growth and the conservation of open land adjacent to public protected areas in Flathead County in Northwest Montana are evaluated for nine economic growth–land use policy futures. Future increases in total output and total jobs under three economic growth scenarios are projected using the IMPLAN model. The locations of parcels developed between 2005 and 2024 under the nine futures are simulated using the Ecosystem Landscape Modeling System. Open land adjacent to public protected areas in Flathead County decreases as economic growth and associated land development increase. Implementing a more restrictive land use policy may reduce but not eliminate the loss of open land from economic growth and associated land development. Trade-offs between total output and open land conservation and between total jobs and open land conservation decrease as economic growth decreases and/or the land use policy becomes more restrictive.