Fuzzy multiple attribute evaluation of alternative land use futures

Abstract

Alternative futures analysis (AFA) is used to evaluate and rank nine alternative land use futures for pro-environment and pro-development interest groups in Flathead County, Montana, using a fuzzy multiple attribute evaluation method. The nine alternative futures consisting of combinations of low, moderate, and high economic growth scenarios and current, moderately restrictive, and highly restrictive land use policies for the period 2000–2024 were simulated using the Ecosystem Landscape Modeling System. Alternative futures were ranked based on the total output of goods and services in the county estimated using the IMPLAN model, the developable county area available for development, and the total area developed in 8-km buffer areas for five protected areas in the county. Results indicate that although the rankings of the alternative futures differ for the two interest groups, the alternative future having a moderate growth rate with the current land use policy is the highest ranked alternative future for both groups.