Potential Predictability during a Madden–Julian Oscillation Event

Abstract

The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is an important source of predictability. The boreal 2004/05 winter is used as a case study to conduct predictability experiments with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. That winter season was characterized by an MJO event, weak El Niño, strong North Atlantic Oscillation, and extremely wet conditions over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The issues investigated are as follows: 1) growth of forecast errors in the tropics relative to the extratropics, 2) propagation of forecast errors from the tropics to the extratropics, 3) forecast error growth on spatial scales associated with MJO and non-MJO variability, and 4) the relative importance of MJO and non-MJO tropical variability on predictability of precipitation over CONUS. Root-mean-square errors in forecasts of normalized eddy kinetic energy (NEKE) (200 hPa) show that errors in initial conditions in the tropics grow faster than in the extratropics. Potential predictability extends out to about 4 days in the tropics and 9 days in the extratropics. Forecast errors in the tropics quickly propagate to the extratropics, as demonstrated by experiments in which initial conditions are only perturbed in the tropics. Forecast errors in NEKE (200 hPa) on scales related to the MJO grow slower than in non-MJO variability over localized areas in the tropics and short lead times. Potential predictability of precipitation extends to 1–5 days over most of CONUS but to longer leads (7–12 days) over regions with orographic precipitation in California. Errors in initial conditions on small scales relative to the MJO quickly grow, propagate to the extratropics, and degrade forecast skill of precipitation.