Influence of the Atlantic and Pacific Multidecadal Variability on Arctic Sea Ice in Pacemaker Simulations during 1920–2013

Abstract

Abstract The Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and Pacific multidecadal variability (PMV) can influence Arctic sea ice and modulate its trend, but to what extent the AMV and PMV can affect Arctic sea ice and which processes are dominant are not well understood. Here, we analyze the Community Earth System Model, version 1, idealized and time-varying pacemaker ensemble simulations to investigate these issues. These experiments show that the sea ice concentration varies mainly over the marginal Arctic Ocean, while the sea ice thickness variations occur over the entire Arctic Ocean. The internal components of AMV and PMV can enhance or weaken the decadal sea ice loss rates over the marginal Arctic Ocean by more than 50%. The AMV- or PMV-induced anomalous atmospheric energy transport and downward longwave radiation related to low clouds (thermodynamical processes) and sea ice motion (dynamical processes) contribute to the Arctic surface air temperature and sea ice concentration and thickness changes. Anomalous oceanic heat flux is mainly a response to rather than a cause of sea ice variations. The dynamic processes contribute to the winter Arctic sea ice variations as much as the thermodynamic processes, but they contribute less (more) to the summer Arctic sea ice variability than the thermodynamic processes over the marginal Arctic Ocean (parts of the central Arctic Ocean). Sea ice loss enhances air–sea heat fluxes, which cause oceanic heat convergence and warm near-surface air and the lower troposphere, which in turn melt more sea ice.