Arctic sea ice decline and ice export in the CMIP5 historical simulations

Abstract

Arctic sea ice properties and Fram Strait ice export from six CMIP5 Global Climate and Earth System Models are evaluated and investigated for the period 1957–2005. Over the last decades most ensemble members simulate a decreasing September sea ice area and a slow, general thinning of the sea ice cover. While the different ensemble members both under- and overestimate the decline in observed September sea ice area, none of the members reproduce the observed thinning.This study is a first attempt to evaluate the Fram Strait ice area export in the CMIP5 models, and the role it has played for Arctic sea ice area and thickness. Five of the six models evaluated reproduce the seasonal cycle and the inter-annual variance of the ice area export in the Fram Strait reasonably well. The simulated southward export of sea ice in the Fram Strait constitutes a major fraction of the Arctic sea ice in these five models; 10–18% of the sea ice covered Arctic Basin is annually exported. For the same models the year-to-year variability in Fram Strait ice volume export carries 35% of the year-to-year variability in the Arctic Basin sea ice volume.We have found low but significant correlations on inter-annual timescales between the Fram Strait ice export, both in terms of area and volume, and the Arctic Basin sea ice thickness. All six models show that an increase in ice area export leads a decrease in the sea ice thickness. This inverse relationship also holds when considering the long-term trends; the larger the increase in Fram Strait ice area export, the larger the thinning of the Arctic Basin sea ice cover and the larger the loss in the September sea ice area. The different ensemble members show both negative and positive ice export trends. Focusing on the model with the largest number of ensemble members (10), we have been able to quantify the effect of the ice area export on the Arctic Basin sea ice for this particular model. For this model an increase of the ice area export similar to the estimated trend (from NCEP) can explain almost 20% of the total simulated decline in sea ice area and thickness.