A New Method for Calculating Instantaneous Atmospheric Heat Transport

The causes of Arctic amplification are widely debated, and a cohesive picture has not been obtained yet. This study has investigated the role of the Atlantic meridional oceanic and atmospheric heat transport into the Arctic in the emergence of Arctic amplification. The integral advective fluxes in the layer of Atlantic waters and in the lower troposphere were considered. The results show a strong coupling between the meridional heat fluxes and regional Arctic amplification in the Eurasian Arctic on the decadal time scales (10–15 years). We argue that the low-frequency variability of Arctic amplification is regulated via the chain of oceanic heat transport — atmospheric heat transport — Arctic amplification. The atmospheric response to the ocean influence occurs with a delay of three years and is attributed to the Bjerknes compensation mechanism. In turn, the atmospheric heat and moisture transport directly affects the magnitude of Arctic amplification, with the latter lagging by one year. Thus, the variability of oceanic heat transport at the southern boundary of the Nordic Seas might be a predictor of the Arctic amplification magnitude over the Eurasian Basin of the Arctic Ocean with a lead time of four years. The results are consistent with the concept of the decadal Arctic climate variability expressed via the Arctic Ocean Oscillation index.

Total poleward atmospheric heat transport (AHT) is similar in both magnitude and latitudinal structure between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. These similarities occur despite more major mountain ranges in the Northern Hemisphere, which help create substantial stationary eddy AHT that is largely absent in the Southern Hemisphere. However, this hemispheric difference in stationary eddy AHT is compensated by hemispheric differences in other dynamic components of AHT so that total AHT is similar between hemispheres. To understand how AHT compensation occurs, we add midlatitude mountain ranges in two different general circulation models that are otherwise configured as aquaplanets. Even when midlatitude mountains are introduced, total AHT is nearly invariant. We explore the near invariance of total AHT in response to orography through dynamic, energetic, and diffusive perspectives. Dynamically, orographically induced changes to stationary eddy AHT are compensated by changes in both transient eddy and mean meridional circulation AHT. This creates an AHT system with three interconnected components that resist large changes to total AHT. Energetically, the total AHT can only change if the top-of-the-atmosphere net radiation changes at the equator-to-pole scale. Midlatitude orography does not create large-enough changes in the equator-to-pole temperature gradient to alter outgoing longwave radiation enough to substantially change total AHT. In the zonal mean, changes to absorbed shortwave radiation also often compensate for changes in outgoing longwave radiation. Diffusively, the atmosphere smooths anomalies in temperature and humidity created by the addition of midlatitude orography, such that total AHT is relatively invariant. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to better understand how orography influences heat transport in the atmosphere. Enhancing our understanding of how atmospheric heat transport works is important, as heat transport helps moderate Earth’s surface temperatures and influences precipitation patterns. We find that the total amount of atmospheric heat transport does not change in the presence of mountains in the midlatitudes. Different pieces of the heat transport change, but they change in compensatory ways, such that the total heat transport remains roughly constant.

Atmospheric heat transport is an important piece of our climate system, yet we lack a complete theory for its magnitude or changes. Atmospheric dynamics and radiation play different roles in controlling the total atmospheric heat transport (AHT) and its partitioning into components associated with eddies and mean meridional circulations. This work focuses on two specific controls: a radiative one, namely atmospheric radiative temperature tendencies, and a dynamic one, the planetary rotation rate. We use an idealized gray radiation model to employ a novel framework to lock the radiative temperature tendency and total AHT to climatological values, even while the rotation rate is varied. This setup allows for a systematic study of the effects of radiative tendency and rotation rate on AHT. We find that rotation rate controls the latitudinal extent of the Hadley cell and the heat transport efficiency of eddies. Both the rotation rate and radiative tendency influence the strength of the Hadley cell and the strength of equator–pole energy differences that are important for AHT by eddies. These two controls do not always operate independently and can reinforce or dampen each other. In addition, we examine how individual AHT components, which vary with latitude, sum to a total AHT that varies smoothly with latitude. At slow rotation rates the mean meridional circulation is most important in ensuring total AHT varies smoothly with latitude, while eddies are most important at rotation rates similar to, and faster than, those of Earth.

It is well known that the Arctic warms much more than the rest of the world even under spatially quasi-uniform radiative forcing such as that due to an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration. While the surface albedo feedback is often referred to as the explanation of the enhanced Arctic warming, the importance of atmospheric heat transport from the lower latitudes has also been reported in previous studies. In the current study, an attempt is made to understand how the regional feedbacks in the Arctic are induced by the change in atmospheric heat transport and vice versa. Equilibrium sensitivity experiments that enable us to separate the contributions of the Northern Hemisphere mid-high latitude response to the CO2 increase and the remote influence of surface warming in other regions are carried out. The result shows that the effect of remote forcing is predominant in the Arctic warming. The dry-static energy transport to the Arctic is reduced once the Arctic surface warms in response to the local or remote forcing. The feedback analysis based on the energy budget reveals that the increased moisture transport from lower latitudes, on the other hand, warms the Arctic in winter more effectively not only via latent heat release but also via greenhouse effect of water vapor and clouds. The change in total atmospheric heat transport determined as a result of counteracting dry-static and latent heat components, therefore, is not a reliable measure for the net effect of atmospheric dynamics on the Arctic warming. The current numerical experiments support a recent interpretation based on the regression analysis: the concurrent reduction in the atmospheric poleward heat transport and future Arctic warming predicted in some models does not imply a minor role of the atmospheric dynamics. Despite the similar magnitude of poleward heat transport change, the Arctic warms more than the Southern Ocean even in the equilibrium response without ocean dynamics. It is shown that a large negative shortwave cloud feedback over the Southern Ocean, greatly influenced by low-latitude surface warming, is responsible for this asymmetric polar warming.

We investigate the linear trends in meridional atmospheric heat transport (AHT) since 1980 in atmospheric reanalysis datasets, coupled climate models, and atmosphere-only climate models forced with historical sea surface temperatures. Trends in AHT are decomposed into contributions from three components of circulation: (i) transient eddies, (ii) stationary eddies, and (iii) the mean meridional circulation. All reanalyses and models agree on the pattern of AHT trends in the Southern Ocean, providing confidence in the trends in this region. There are robust increases in transient-eddy AHT magnitude in the Southern Ocean in the reanalyses, which are well replicated by the atmosphere-only models, while coupled models show smaller magnitude trends. This suggests that the pattern of sea surface temperature trends contributes to the transient-eddy AHT trends in this region. In the tropics, we find large differences between mean-meridional circulation AHT trends in models and the reanalyses, which we connect to discrepancies in tropical precipitation trends. In the Northern Hemisphere, we find less evidence of large-scale trends and more uncertainty, but note several regions with mismatches between models and the reanalyses that have dynamical explanations. Throughout this work we find strong compensation between the different components of AHT, most notably in the Southern Ocean where transient-eddy AHT trends are well compensated by trends in the mean-meridional circulation AHT, resulting in relatively small total AHT trends. This highlights the importance of considering AHT changes holistically, rather than each AHT component individually.

<p>The meridional heat transport is primarily governed by the geometry between the Earth and the Sun and it has been shown in previous studies that it is nearly invariant in different climates. Nevertheless, the processes, which contribute to the whole transport, do not stay invariable, but their changes compensate each other. Thus, the changes in the various transport processes give an insight into the climate system and its changes in different conditions, such as the high CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations of the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO).</p><p>In our work we investigate the meridional heat transport and its elements in climate model simulations from DeepMIP focusing on the EECO. The meridional heat transport is divided into atmospheric and ocean heat transport. The atmospheric heat transport is further divided into moist and dry energy transport and also into transport by the meridional overturning circulation, transient eddies and stationary eddies. Annual and seasonal changes are compared in the preindustrial control simulation, in the 1xCO<sub>2</sub> simulation and in simulations with high CO<sub>2 </sub>concentration values (3xCO<sub>2</sub>, 4xCO<sub>2</sub>, 6xCO<sub>2</sub>). We found that in a warmer climate, where the hydrological cycle is expected to be stronger, the transport of the meridional overturning circulation at the tropics, so the circulation of the Hadley cell, is more intense. Also, at the subtropics the energy transport of monsoon systems and at the mid-latitudes the energy transport of cyclones and anticyclones is different than in the control climate.</p><p> </p>

The atmospheric heat transport on Earth from the Equator to the poles is largely carried out by the mid-latitude storms. However, there is no satisfactory theory to describe this fundamental feature of the Earth's climate. Previous studies have characterized the poleward heat transport as a diffusion by eddies of specified horizontal length and velocity scales, but there is little agreement as to what those scales should be. Here we propose instead to regard the baroclinic zone--the zone of strong temperature gradients and active eddies--as a heat engine which generates eddy kinetic energy by transporting heat from a warmer to a colder region. This view leads to a new velocity scale, which we have tested along with previously proposed length and velocity scales, using numerical climate simulations in which the eddy properties have been varied by changing forcing and boundary conditions. The experiments show that the eddy velocity varies in accordance with the new scale, while the size of the eddies varies with the well-known Rhines beta-scale. Our results not only give new insight into atmospheric eddy heat transport, but also allow simple estimates of the intensities of mid-latitude storms, which have hitherto only been possible with expensive general circulation models.

The meridional atmospheric heat transport (AHT) represents the net energy moved by winds across a latitude circle and is constrained to balance the global atmospheric energy budget. This balance statement provides two strategies for calculating AHT: i) the dynamic estimate from the vertical and zonal integral of the energy flux calculated from high frequency atmospheric reanalysis/models and ii) the energetic estimate calculated as the integral (accumulation) of the net energy input into the atmosphere from one pole to the other. To date, estimates of AHT mainly rely on the dynamic approach due to the historic inability to accurately observe the atmospheric energy budget. We challenge this notion by examining the consistency of AHT calculated using the dynamic approach with atmospheric reanalysis products and the energetic approach using several observation-based estimates of the atmospheric energy balance. There is good agreement in the annual mean AHT in the Southern Hemisphere between most products (within 15%). However, Northern Hemisphere annual mean AHT is substantially (up to 40%) lower in the observed products, attributable to reduced poleward atmospheric heating gradients from observed surface turbulent heat fluxes compared to reanalysis. While the mean state differs between calculations, monthly AHT variance has agreement, with correlations of up to 0.8 and 0.5 in the midlatitudes and tropics respectively. However, nonstationarity in the observed AHT record may restrict long term assessment of trends. Uncertainty in the surface turbulent heat flux remains as a leading constraint on observing the atmospheric energy budget and consequently AHT.

The Bjerknes compensation (BJC) under global warming is studied using a simple box model and a coupled Earth system model. The BJC states the out-of-phase changes in the meridional atmosphere and ocean heat transports. Results suggest that the BJC can occur during the transient period of global warming. During the transient period, the sea ice melting in the high latitudes can cause a significant weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), resulting in a cooling in the North Atlantic. The meridional contrast of sea surface temperature would be enhanced, and this can eventually enhance the Hadley cell and storm-track activities in the Northern Hemisphere. Accompanied by changes in both ocean and atmosphere circulations, the northward ocean heat transport in the Atlantic is decreased while the northward atmosphere heat transport is increased, and the BJC occurs in the Northern Hemisphere. Once the freshwater influx into the North Atlantic Ocean stops, or the ocean even loses freshwater because of strong heating in the high latitudes, the AMOC would recover. Both the atmosphere and ocean heat transports would be enhanced, and they can eventually recover to the state of the control run, leading to the BJC to become invalid. The above processes are clearly demonstrated in the coupled model CO2 experiment. Since it is difficult to separate the freshwater effect from the heating effect in the coupled model, a simple box model is used to understand the BJC mechanism and freshwater’s role under global warming. In a warming climate, the freshwater flux into the ocean can cool the global surface temperature, mitigating the temperature rise. Box model experiments indicate clearly that it is the freshwater flux into the North Atlantic that causes out-of-phase changes in the atmosphere and ocean heat transports, which eventually plays a stabilizing role in global climate change.

Heat Transport and Climate

The faster warming for Arctic Ocean surface air temperature (SAT) relative to that at lower latitude is connected with various processes, including local radiation feedback, poleward oceanic and atmospheric heat transport. It is unclear how combinations of different low‐frequency internal climate modes influence Arctic amplification on the decadal timescale. Here, the decadal Arctic SAT variation, its connection with the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and possible underlying mechanisms, are investigated based on several independent observational proxies, pre‐industrial experiments, and historical large ensembles of two CMIP6 models. Our study suggests that AMOC and Arctic SAT vary in phase on the decadal timescale, whereas this relationship is insignificant at the interannual timescale. Further analysis shows that the AMOC accompanied with cross‐basin oceanic water/heat transport between Atlantic and Arctic would alter air–sea interface exchange over the melting ice regions, and then amplified poleward atmospheric heat and moisture transports. The resulting enhanced downward longwave radiation ultimately warms the Arctic SAT. Additionally, the decadal‐scale North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) can modulate the relationship between AMOC and Arctic SAT by influencing poleward moisture transport and cross‐basin circulation. Specifically, the phase shift of combined NPO and AMOC can contribute 14%–41% covariance relationship between AMOC and Arctic SAT. Our study provides potential sources for predicting the Arctic climate and constraining its uncertainty in future projections.

Through study of observations and coupled climate simulations, it is argued that the mean position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) north of the equator is a consequence of a northwards heat transport across the equator by ocean circulation. Observations suggest that the hemispheric net radiative forcing of climate at the top of the atmosphere is almost perfectly symmetric about the equator, and so the total (atmosphere plus ocean) heat transport across the equator is small (order 0.2 PW northwards). Due to the Atlantic ocean’s meridional overturning circulation, however, the ocean carries significantly more heat northwards across the equator (order 0.4 PW) than does the coupled system. There are two primary consequences. First, atmospheric heat transport is southwards across the equator to compensate (0.2 PW southwards), resulting in the ITCZ being displaced north of the equator. Second, the atmosphere, and indeed the ocean, is slightly warmer (by perhaps 2 °C) in the northern hemisphere than in the southern hemisphere. This leads to the northern hemisphere emitting slightly more outgoing longwave radiation than the southern hemisphere by virtue of its relative warmth, supporting the small northward heat transport by the coupled system across the equator. To conclude, the coupled nature of the problem is illustrated through study of atmosphere–ocean–ice simulations in the idealized setting of an aquaplanet, resolving the key processes at work.

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) significantly impact the Arctic climate system by enhancing atmospheric heat and moisture transport and altering the local energy budget. Developing AR detection tools (ARDTs) is critical yet challenging. This study evaluates 12 ARDTs in the Arctic to assess their performance in representing atmospheric heat (represented by moist static energy) and moisture transport, as well as surface downward longwave radiation (LWD) and precipitation impacts, spanning 2000 to 2019 using ERA5 reanalysis. We find that AR occurrence frequency in the Arctic varies widely, from less than 1% to over 13%, depending on the ARDT. This variability leads to differences in contributions to poleward atmospheric heat (<1%–33%) and moisture (<1%–49%) transport. The highest AR frequency, and corresponding contributions to atmospheric heat and moisture transport, occurs over the Atlantic sector during non‐summer seasons for most ARDTs. This region aligns with the primary poleward moisture pathway and the end of climatological mid‐latitude storm tracks, highlighting strong connections between Arctic ARs and mid‐latitude cyclones. ARs induce significant LWD anomalies, largest in winter, smallest in summer, and also substantially contribute to the seasonal precipitation. Global ARDTs detect fewer ARs with larger anomalies (>100 W m −2 in higher Arctic), but contribute <1% to seasonal climatological LWD and precipitation. In contrast, polar‐specific ARDTs detect higher AR occurrences and account for up to 16% of seasonal LWD and 41% precipitation. This suggests that algorithms emphasizing extreme events with large anomalies do not necessarily indicate a large climate radiative and precipitation impact.

Evaporation adds moisture to the atmosphere, while condensation removes it. Condensation also adds thermal energy to the atmosphere, which must be removed from the atmosphere by radiative cooling. As a result of these two processes, there is a net flow of energy driven by surface evaporation adding energy and radiative cooling removing energy from the atmosphere. Here, we calculate the implied heat transport of this process to find the atmospheric heat transport in balance with the surface evaporation. In modern-day Earth-like climates, evaporation varies strongly between the equator and the poles, while the net radiative cooling in the atmosphere is nearly meridionally uniform, and as a consequence, the heat transport governed by evaporation is similar to the total poleward heat transport of the atmosphere. This analysis is free from cancellations between moist and dry static energy transports, which greatly simplifies the interpretation of atmospheric heat transport and its relationship to the diabatic heating and cooling that governs the atmospheric heat transport. We further demonstrate, using a hierarchy of models, that much of the response of atmospheric heat transport to perturbations, including increasing CO2 concentrations, can be understood from the distribution of evaporation changes. These findings suggest that meridional gradients in surface evaporation govern atmospheric heat transport and its changes.

The Earth climate system has an intrinsic mechanism to maintain its energy conservation by impelling opposite changes in meridional ocean and atmosphere heat transports. This mechanism is briefed as the Bjerknes compensation (BJC). We set up a global coupled two-hemisphere box model in this study, and obtain an analytical solution to the BJC of this system. In the two-hemisphere model, the thermohaline circulation is interhemispheric and parameterized by the density difference between two polar boxes. The symmetric poleward atmosphere heat and moisture transports are considered and parameterized by the temperature gradient between tropical and polar boxes. Different from the BJC in the one-hemisphere box model that depends only on the local climate feedback, the BJC here is determined by both local climate feedback and temperature change. The asymmetric thermohaline circulation leads to a better BJC in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. Furthermore, an analytical solution to the probability of a valid BJC (i.e., negative BJC) is derived, which is determined only by the local climate feedback. The probability of a valid BJC is very high under reasonable climate feedback. Based on observational data, the climate feedback can be estimated and the BJC in real world can be calculated using the analytical formulae. It is found that at the decadal and longer timescales the BJC for both hemispheres are robust in reality.