Abstract
Abstract In Azerbaijan, about 300 structures that could be oil fields are known onshore, and 66 structures are already recognized in the offshore region. The question is what fraction of these structures can be expected to yield horizons with commercial value. To find an answer to this problem a statistical analysis has been conducted of data covering the last 100 years of oil production in Azerbaijan. The number of producing horizons per field was considered as a random value, described by a linear combination of Poisson and geometric distributions. A numerical method for finding the best-fitting values of the parameters of such distribution was developed. As a consequence, about 75% of the onshore structures, and almost 90% of the offshore structures could contain oil-bearing horizons (but not necessarily commercially viable). To estimate the commercial values of these horizons, as well as the probability that any discovered horizon will be commercially viable, further analysis of the reserves, areas, thicknesses, GOR, etc., is required.
Published Version
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