Potential geography and productivity of “Hass” avocado crops in Colombia estimated by ecological niche modeling

Abstract

Abstract Variation in environmental suitability across the geographic range of a species is common, with consequences for population health and production. Ecological niche modeling (ENM) is an effort to estimate environmental requirements of species based on associations between known geographic occurrences and environmental conditions at those sites, to allow estimation of the potential distribution of the species. We developed an ENM for Hass avocado production fields in Colombia, in which we related the distribution of avocado production lots to environmental information derived from multitemporal MODIS satellite imagery and digital elevation models. Models were calibrated using maximum entropy approaches, using likelihood and information content metrics to optimize model selection; model performance was measured in terms of omission error with respect to independent testing data. Two models were selected that presented best combinations of high information content, significance, and performance based on lower values of Akaike Information Criterion (AICc), partial receiver operating characteristic (partialROC), and low omission of independent testing data records. Suitability values from those models were compared to Hass avocado production; models were able to identify both novel areas with potential for cultivation, and sites where this crop has been planted in relatively unsuitable areas. A statistically significant positive relationship existed between suitability values from the models and avocado production, with different relationships for three technological levels. ENM approaches thus offer a useful and novel tool for exploring and designing sustainable agriculture systems, identifying areas with environmental potential in Colombia and currently not planted with Hass avocado.