Abstract
Predictions of suitable habitat areas within a specific region can provide important information to assist in the management of invasive plants. Here, we predict the current and future potential distribution of Solidago altissima (tall goldenrod) in South Korea using climatic and topographic variables and anthropogenic activities. We adopt four single models (the generalized linear model, generalized additive model, random forest, and an artificial neural network) and a weighted ensemble model for the projection based on 515 field survey points. The results showed that suitable areas for S. altissima were mainly concentrated in the southwest regions of South Korea, where temperatures are higher than in other regions, especially in the winter season. Solar radiation and Topographic Wetness Index (TWI) were also positively associated with the occurrence of S. altissima. Anthropogenic effects and distances from rivers were found to be relatively less important variables. Based on six selected explanatory variables, suitable habitat areas for S. altissima have expanded remarkably with climate changes. This range expansion is likely to be stronger northward in west coastal areas. For the SSP585 scenario, our model predicted that suitable habitat areas increased from 16,255 km2 (16.2% of South Korea) to 44,551 km2 (44.4%) approximately over the past thirty years. Our results show that S. altissima is highly likely to expand into non-forest areas such as roadsides, waterfront areas, and abandoned urban areas. We propose that, based on our projection maps, S. altissima should be removed from its current margin areas first rather than from old central population areas.
Highlights
The spread of invasive plant species into native vegetation has reduced biodiversity and altered landscape structures and ecosystem functions while having harmful effects on the social economy and human well-being [1,2,3]
PthriosjescttuiodnymisatposacnasnwsehroswevtehreaslpqrueeasdtidoinrescrteiolanteadndtostpheeddiosftrsiubcuhtipolnanotfsSu. nadlteisrsicmlima:aWtehich envircohnanmgenstcaelnfaaricotso.rs are significantly related to the occurrence of S. altissima? Where are suitable habitats fTohr ethaiisminovfatshiivsestsupdeyciiesstionaSnosuwtehrKseovreeraalbqasueedstioonnscurerlraetnedt ctloimthaetedcisotnridbuittiioonns?ofHSo. waltimssuimcah: will suitaWblheihchabeintavtiraornemasencthaal nfagcetourns daerer csligimniafitceanchtlaynrgeela?ted to the occurrence of S. altissima? Where are suitable habitats for this invasive species in South Korea based on current climate conditions? How
The response curves of generalized additive model (GAM) showed that the probability of S. altissima presence increased as bio1, bio12, Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), and solar radiation increased, and it decreased as bio7 increased (Figure 2)
Summary
The spread of invasive plant species into native vegetation has reduced biodiversity and altered landscape structures and ecosystem functions while having harmful effects on the social economy and human well-being [1,2,3]. Because successful invasive plants have a broad environmental tolerance range, superior competitiveness, and dispersion ability compared to other species, invasive plants often extend to new habitats rapidly, and the rate of their spread does not decline in most cases [5,6]. The native range of S. altissima covers large parts of North America, from Florida in the USA to Ontario in Canada [11]. After this species was introduced into Europe in the 17th or 18th century, it expanded to most of the European contiSnuestnaitn,afbriloitmy 20S2c0a, 1n2d, xinFOavRiPaEtEoRnRoEVrtIhEWern Italy [12]. Where are suitable habitats for this invasive species in South Korea based on current climate conditions? PthriosjescttuiodnymisatposacnasnwsehroswevtehreaslpqrueeasdtidoinrescrteiolanteadndtostpheeddiosftrsiubcuhtipolnanotfsSu. nadlteisrsicmlima:aWtehich envircohnanmgenstcaelnfaaricotso.rs are significantly related to the occurrence of S. altissima? Where are suitable habitats fTohr ethaiisminovfatshiivsestsupdeyciiesstionaSnosuwtehrKseovreeraalbqasueedstioonnscurerlraetnedt ctloimthaetedcisotnridbuittiioonns?ofHSo. waltimssuimcah: will suitaWblheihchabeintavtiraornemasencthaal nfagcetourns daerer csligimniafitceanchtlaynrgeela?ted to the occurrence of S. altissima? Where are suitable habitats for this invasive species in South Korea based on current climate conditions? How
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