Abstract

Simple SummaryAmphibian species are one of one of the groups most vulnerable to climate change according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). Limited research has been conducted investigating the effects of climate change on amphibian species in South Korea. In our study, we aimed to predict the impacts of climate change on the distribution of 16 of the 18 species of amphibians currently reported in South Korea. Altogether, 30,281 occurrence points, six bioclimatic variables, and one environmental variable (altitude) were used in modeling. Moreover, we classified 16 Korean amphibians into three groups based on their habitat characteristics: wetland amphibians (Group 1), migrating amphibians (Group 2), and forest-dwelling amphibians (Group 3). Altitude has been predicted to be a major factor in present amphibian distributions in South Korea. In general, our results show that the seven species in Group 1 should be the most resistant to climate change. The five migrating amphibians (Group 2) should decline with preferred habitat reductions. The forest-dwelling amphibian species (Group 3) are the most vulnerable to climate change and their protection requires the immediate implementation of conservation strategies. We will continue to refine our model as it evolves into a useful tool for our endeavor to preserve South Korea’s amphibians as climate change progresses.Amphibian species are highly vulnerable to climate change with significant species decline and extinction predicted worldwide. However, there are very limited studies on amphibians in South Korea. Here, we assessed the potential impacts of climate change on different habitat groups (wetland amphibians, Group 1; migrating amphibians, Group 2; and forest-dwelling amphibians, Group 3) under future climate change and land cover change in South Korea using a maximum entropy modelling approach. Our study revealed that all amphibians would suffer substantial loss of suitable habitats in the future, except Lithobates catesbeianus, Kaloula borealis, and Karsenia koreana. Similarly, species richness for Groups 2 and 3 will decline by 2030, 2050, and 2080. Currently, amphibian species are widely distributed across the country; however, in future, suitable habitats for amphibians would be concentrated along the Baekdudaegan Mountain Range and the southeastern region. Among the three groups, Group 3 amphibians are predicted to be the most vulnerable to climate change; therefore, immediate conservation action is needed to protect them. We expect this study could provide crucial baseline information required for the government to design climate change mitigation strategies for indigenous amphibians.

Highlights

  • Global climate was fairly stable before the 20th century, with organisms being well adapted to the typical climate variability

  • We investigated the potential effects of climate change on amphibian species with similar habitat characteristics in South Korea

  • The change in the potential habitat suitability for amphibian species depends on the climatic variables related to precipitation and temperature used in the maximum entropy-based (MaxEnt) model, and on different non-climatic factors such as overexploitation, habitat loss, and infectious diseases [6,16]

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Summary

Introduction

Global climate was fairly stable before the 20th century, with organisms being well adapted to the typical climate variability. Organisms have struggled to adapt to rapid climate changes in the late 20th century [1]. These ongoing changes are predicted to negatively impact global species richness and distribution as many organisms change their physiology, phenology, and adaptive capacity [2,3]. Amphibians are excellent indicators of environmental change due to their particular characteristics [4]. Their unshelled eggs, highly permeable skin, and unique biphasic life-cycles make them highly sensitive to changes in thermal and hydric environments [5,6]. A decline in amphibian populations negatively impacts ecosystem structure

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