Post-Soviet space caught in Thucydides Trap: Grasping the Russian zero-sum behavior

Abstract

Witnessing the pro-Western shifts in the post-Soviet countries, Russia has failed to develop policies that would attract the former Soviet satellites without keeping them in its sphere of influence via hard-power. On the other hand, Western values, political influence and institutions have penetrated Eurasian countries causing Russia’s relative decline. This structural dynamic not only entraps Russia in a zero-sum game with the West but also triggers Russian threat perceptions on the unit level. Russian strategic culture emphasizes anxieties about loss of sovereignty or power shifts in the Russian regime that could mean the end of the current establishment, border security, and great power status resurrection. A combination of these threat perceptions and structural shifts manifests in the Thucydides Trap, an ancient dilemma behind the preventive war, in the post-Soviet space.