A Triumphant America and a Villainous Iran: Perception as an Intervening Variable

Abstract

Perception is a key variable in neoclassical realist accounts of foreign policy and tends to be viewed in two ways: perceptions of threat and perceptions of power. Rose traces this to the “third wave” of works in neoclassical realism (NCR), with the first and second waves focusing on shifts in the relative power of different states and the third and follow- ing waves moving more toward studies of the interactions of shifts in power and perceptions of power and threat.1 Regarding the third wave, Wohlforth, for instance, discusses the role of perceptions of relative power in Soviet foreign policymaking in the final stages of the Cold War.2 The other major theme is that of the perception of threat held by policymak- ers. According to neoclassical realists, this conditions how they respond to threats and what threats they respond to. Like Wohlforth, Schweller argues that policymakers’ perceptions of the international environment and the balance of power are important variables and to an extent explain why states sometimes fail to respond forcefully to threats.3 This theme is further explored by Steven Lobell, who creates an intricate model of threat identification by elites within states across international, regional, and domestic levels.4KeywordsForeign PolicyMiddle EastPeace ProcessClinton AdministrationMuslim BrotherhoodThese keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.