Insecurities of the Unimportant: Singapore’s Threat Perception against the Rising China

Abstract

Threat perception has been central in the field of international relations, especially in the literature of states’ alliances and conflict solutions. International Relations (IR) balance of power and alliance theories have largely equated “threat” to “power.” A standard narrative in Singapore’s foreign policy toward great powers is its reluctance to choose between both. Singapore’s immediate neighbor, Indonesia, the largest archipelagic country in the world, has voiced similar inclinations. Studies have concentrated on the larger power threat interpretation and their responses toward the change in the international order arising from China’s growth or the rise of terrorism but rarely examining issues from small states’ point of view. According to Realists’ logic, small states possess little capacity to influence the fate of their own survival; therefore, they can only choose between balancing and band wagoning. Threat perceptions play an intermediary role in connecting the external environment and state foreign policy behavior. Hence, the study of threat perception is critical as it influences states foreign policies regarding issues ranging from defense spending to states’ level of commitment toward international multilateral cooperation. IR scholars have examined how states form threat perceptions from various psychological and non-psychological perspectives. However, these factors are often studied independently. This paper argues that Gestalt principles of threat perception offer a more thorough analysis of Singapore’s threat perception by bridging the gap between realist and constructivist studies by demonstrating how Singapore’s threat perception as a small state is magnified due to its unique geographical position and its shared cultural affinity with China.