Possible Scenarios for China's Future Relations with North Korea: South Korean Perspective

Abstract

Abstract This paper is aimed at deriving possible scenarios for China's future relations with the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) and their implications for South Korea's policy stance. The paper offers seven scenarios that will help provide an understanding of what directions China might take in regard to North Korea, making a connection to the North Korea nuclear problem. The seven scenarios cover both optimistic and pessimistic possibilities, five of which are related to the resolution of the North Korea nuclear issue. These five scenarios are “Confusion and Chaos,” “Agreement for Protection and Dependence,” “Strategic Cooperation and Betrayal,” “Hierarchical Subordination,” and “China's Securing of Control over North Korea.” The remaining two scenarios involve sudden contingencies: “Military Clash with Neighboring Countries” and “North Korea's Internal Contingency.” The paper argues that the most plausible scenario is that of “Agreement for Protection and Dependence.” However, when considering the U.S. factor, realistically, the fourth scenario of “Hierarchical Subordination” is more likely to come about. Given these projections, South Korea's policy toward China must be distinguished by a peacetime- and contingency-based policy. A peacetime policy toward China would serve to promote Chinese influence over the DPRK and thereby achieve a reliable level of predictability in North Korean behavior. Meanwhile, a contingency-based policy should be tailored to the contingency at hand on a case-by-case basis.