Possible approaches to reducing the risks of nuclear escalation at the regional level

Abstract

The article deals with issues related to the task of reducing the risks of escalation of a local military conflict to the level of a nuclear one. To find ways to solve this problem, three aspects are considered – doctrinal, concerning official views on the use of nuclear weapons; features of the means of delivery of tactical nuclear weapons; features of the storage of tactical nuclear ammunition; the influence of high-precision weapons. The main doctrinal provisions are considered for Russia, the United States and China. The conclusion is substantiated that it is expedient to consolidate in the doctrinal documents of nuclear states or in other forms of mutual obligations the provision that each state will develop new non-nuclear systems of armed struggle with a simultaneous reduction in the role of nuclear weapons in ensuring security. To reduce the risk of escalation of the conflict to a nuclear one, it is proposed to work out the issue of refusing to create and deploy delivery vehicles that allow their use for both conventional and nuclear strikes. Relevant proposals have been made regarding the deployment of short-range nuclear weapons carriers and storage sites for nuclear charges, aimed at minimizing the risk of the use of nuclear weapons. An assessment of the capabilities of high-precision weapons to disrupt strategic stability when trying to use them for decapitating or disarming strikes is carried out. The conclusion is made about the unreality of such scenarios. A comparative analysis of the risks of escalation of military conflicts to the nuclear level was carried out for the European and Asia-Pacific regions. Taking into account the achieved level of survivability of the Chinese nuclear potential and the prospects for its development, it is assumed that there is a higher risk of an escalation of a military conflict for the European theater.