Port Container Throughput Forecast Based on ABC Optimized BP Neural Network

Abstract

In order to improve the accuracy of port container throughput prediction, an improved ABC-BP prediction model based on Artificial Bee Colony (ABC) was proposed. With the advantage of global search ability and difficulty in local optimization, the weights and thresholds of Back Propagation (BP) neural network are optimized, and the optimal weights and thresholds in the network are finally determined. Referring to the existing research results, Qingdao 2014-2019 (24 quarters) GDP, port throughput, total foreign trade import and export volume were selected as network input, and Qingdao port 2014-2019 port container throughput statistics were used as network output, a total of 24 sets of data were constructed, so as to build a BP neural network prediction model. The first 20 groups of data were used as the training set, and the last 4 groups of data were used as the test set for instance verification. The results show that, compared with the traditional BP neural network and the BP neural network prediction model optimized by Genetic Algorithm (GA), the ABC-BP model can significantly improve the prediction accuracy of port container throughput.