Population growth scenarios and population expectations for the expansion of urban cities in Najaf governorate

Abstract

Population growth and population prediction influence the expansion of cities. There are multiple ways to know and predict population growth for the target year. The problem with the research is that studies of population prediction and studies of updating (master plans) depend on the growth rate method in population prediction, while the Cohort method is one of the most appropriate methods. The research aims to compare the results of the two methods. The result was an increase in the population for the target year in the study area using the 38% growth rate method over the Cohort method. To find out population growth according to environment and gender, three scenarios were adopted: urban concentration, balanced urban-rural development, and rural development. According to the realistic results of the study area and the data, and based on the state’s orientation and its planning and development policies for urban cities and rural settlements, the second scenario, urban concentration, is the most likely. Population distribution will be 80% urban and 20% rural. It will leave its mark on the estimation of the urban population. And the researchers attempt to give a perception of the population distribution according to Zipf’s law. This affected the knowledge of the space required for urban expansion.