Policy implications for synergistic management of PM2.5 and O3 pollution from a pattern-process-sustainability perspective in China

Abstract

In recent years, the pattern of air pollution in China has changed profoundly, and PM2.5 and surface ozone (O3) have become the main air pollutants affecting the air quality of cities and regions in China. The synergistic control of the two has become the key to the sustainable improvement of air quality in China. In this study, we investigated and analyzed the spatial and temporal distribution patterns, exposure health risks, key drivers, and sustainable characteristics of PM2.5 and O3 concentrations in China from 2013 to 2022 at the national and city cluster scales by combining methodological models such as spatial statistics, trend analysis, exposure-response function, Hurst index, and multi-scale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model. Ultimately, a synergistic management system for PM2.5 and O3 pollution was proposed. The results showed that: (1) The PM2.5 concentration decreased at a rate of 1.45 μg/m3 per year (p < 0.05), while the O3 concentration increased at a rate of 2.54 μg/m3 per year (p < 0.05). The trends of the two concentrations showed significant differences in spatial distribution. (2) Population exposure risks to pollutants showed an increasing trend, with PM2.5 and O3 increasing by 55.1 % and 42.7 %, respectively. The annual deaths associated with exposure to PM2.5 and O3 demonstrated a decreasing and inverted U-shaped trend, respectively, with annual average deaths of 1.312 million and 98,000. Significant regional disparities in health risks from these pollutants were influenced by socio-economic factors such as industrial activities and population density. In the future, it is expected that more than half of China's regions will be exposed to rising risks of PM2.5 and O3 population exposure. (3) Key drivers of regional exacerbation in PM2.5 and O3 levels include the number of industrial enterprises above designated size (NSIE) and population agglomeration (PA), while the disposable income of urban residents (URDI), technological innovation (TI), and government attention level (GAL) emerged as primary factors in controlling pollution hotspots, ranked in order of influence from greatest to least as TI > GAL > URDI. Overall, this study sheds light on the current status of air pollution and health risk sustainability in China and enhances the understanding of future air pollution dynamics in China. The results of the study may help to develop effective targeted control measures to synergize the management of PM2.5 and O3 in different regions.