Poisonous affairs: Russia’s evolving use of poison in covert operations

Abstract

ABSTRACT The August 2020 poisoning of Russian opposition leader Alexi Navalny once again put the spotlight on Russia’s poison program. However, although individual poisonings may draw considerable coverage, little attention has been paid to Russia’s overall pattern of using poison. By comprehensively cataloguing credibly reported poisonings since the 1920s, this paper seeks to understand how Russia’s intelligence services use poison and how their motivations have evolved over the past 100 years. In doing so, the paper establishes a typology of use and highlights evolving trends. Collated data show that the number of incidents is far higher than commonly realized and that the rise in suspected poisonings in post-Soviet Russia is likely related to the rise of Russian kleptocracy, which has allowed members of Russia’s new elite to enrich themselves financially but leaves them vulnerable to charges of corruption. Poison is attractive to Russia’s intelligence services primarily because it offers a discreet way of silencing those who may threaten the new elite and the status quo. However, the use of poison abroad has also precipitated increased awareness of Russia’s continuing research on poison, the use of which has led to international sanctions and widescale diplomatic expulsions. Historical precedent suggests this increased attention may temporarily reduce Russia’s use of poison abroad, although Moscow is likely to retain its extensive poison capabilities. Indeed, growing awareness of suspected poisonings and Moscow’s increasing embrace of implausible deniability has the secondary benefit of intimidating domestic audiences. Thus, in the long run, Moscow’s use of poison—particularly against domestic threats and defectors—is unlikely to be deterred by foreign intervention.