Pocketbook Voting in India’s 18th Parliamentary Elections (2024)

Abstract

The economic theory of voting has long remained a cornerstone in the study of voting behaviour, especially in economically developed democracies. At the heart of it is the assumption that economic contexts shape voting choice and influence electoral outcomes as management of the economy is an important function of governments and that citizens hold elected representatives accountable for the nation’s as well as family’s economic situation. Voters support ruling party candidates when they think the incumbent government has delivered on the economic front—creation of employment opportunities, keeping price of essential goods and services under control, rise in income across social layers and so on. In India, much of the analysis of voting behaviour is focused on shifting allegiance of support across social constituencies—particularly caste and religion. Economic factors of voting choices have received little attention to the extent as if they do not matter. However, analysis of NES (2024) data suggests that economic factors swayed a significant chunk of voters and thus influenced the final electoral outcomes. Anchored in economic theoretical context of voting behaviour, this article particularly examines whether there was pocketbook voting and whether it influenced the electoral outcomes of the 18th general election to Lok Sabha (2024). The findings show that pocketbook voting had significant and substantial effect on political preference.