Abstract
The objectives of this research is to determine the amount of production planning capacity sow talc products in the future utilizing previous data from january to december in year 2017. This researched considered three forecasting method, there are Weight Moving Average (WMA), Moving Average (MA), and Exponential Smoothing (ES). After calculating the methods, then measuring the error value using a control chart of 3 (three) of these methods. After find the best forecasting method, then do linear programming method to obtain the exact amount of production in further. Based on the data calculated, the method of Average Moving has a size of error value of Mean Absolute Percentage Error of 0.09 or 9%, Weight Moving Average has a size error of Mean Absolute Percentage Error of 0.09 or 9% and with Exponential Method Smoothing has an error value of Mean Absolute Percentage Error of 0.12 or 12%. Moving Average and Weight Moving Average have the same MAPE amount but Weight Moving Average has the smallest amount Mean Absolute Deviation compared to other method which is 262.497 kg. Based on the result, The Weight Moving Average method is the best method as reference for utilizing in demand forecasting next year, because it has the smallest error size and has a Tracking Signal  not exceed the maximum or minimum control limit is ≤ 4. Moreover, after obtained Weight Moving Average method is the best method, then is determine value of planning production capacity in next year using linier programming method. Based on the linier programming calculation, the maximum amount of production in next year by considering the forecasting of raw materials, production volume, material composition, and production time obtained in one (1) working day is 11,217,379 pcs / year, or 934,781 pcs / month of finished product. This paper recommends the company to evaluate the demand forecasting in order to achieve higher business growth.
Highlights
1.1 Introduce the ProblemDemand planning in general is known forecasting
Forecasting is an important thing that must be conducted by the company in order to plan the needs of raw materials, it required to choice an appropriate forecasting methods in order the forecasting value results not big different from the reality
The demand data of talc powder raw material in year 2017 is shown in Figure 1 below
Summary
Demand planning in general is known forecasting. Forecasting is an objective calculation using the data in the past, to specify something in the future. The necessary forecasting that must done by the company is product demand from customer requirements. By find out forecasting of production planning it can assist the company in determining the amount of product that should be in production. With the forecasting, the company can achieve the goals and decision-making in determining the production capacity. In forecasting activities required the implementation of methods, it aims to minimize forecasting errors
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