Perturbation Analysis of Population Growth Rates in Taiwan

Shun-Chieh Hsieh

doi:10.1155/2020/8308504

Abstract

The total fertility rate in Taiwan has fallen below 1.3 since 2003. The objective of the study is to use perturbation analysis with census data from 1992 to 2017 to identify which demographic parameters are most important to target for population management. The research shows that the fertility of older ages plays an important role for declining population in Taiwan. From a practical viewpoint, population management policy having a substantial impact on the survival of prereproductive females and the fertility of order females is likely to produce the most dramatic change in population trends. Therefore, the perturbation analysis is useful in understanding the relative importance of vital rates to increase management effectiveness.

Highlights

A quantitative understanding of complex changes in population structure, defining some of the important time scales for population dynamics, is crucial to sustainable population management in a country
This study provides guidance about the relative importance of demographic parameters that are most likely to influence population dynamics in Taiwan
Elasticity analysis inevitably concludes that management strategies improving survival are best applied to younger ages and indicates that changes to the fertility of older ages are mathematically constrained to have less impact on population growth than equivalent changes to the fertility of younger ages

Summary

Introduction

A quantitative understanding of complex changes in population structure, defining some of the important time scales for population dynamics, is crucial to sustainable population management in a country. Taiwan’s population was characterized by both quite high fertility and mortality during the Japanese colonial period [1]. Since the implementation of family planning program in 1964, Taiwan’s fertility rate has rapidly declined [2, 3]. Taiwan currently has one of the world’s lowest fertility rates and the total fertility rate (TFR). Has reached the below-replacement level in 1984. Since 2003, the TFR in Taiwan has fallen below 1.3, which is often described as lowest-low fertility [4], leading to projections of rapid population aging and negative socioeconomic effects. Many studies pointed out that lowest-low fertility in East

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