Abstract
Abstract. The retreat of sea ice has been found to be very significant in the Arctic under global warming. It is projected to continue and will have great impacts on navigation. Perspectives on the changes in sea ice and navigability are crucial to the circulation pattern and future of the Arctic. In this investigation, the decadal changes in sea ice parameters were evaluated by the multi-model from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6, and Arctic navigability was assessed under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and two vessel classes with the Arctic transportation accessibility model. The sea ice extent shows a high possibility of decreasing along SSP5-8.5 under current emissions and climate change. The decadal rate of decreasing sea ice extent will increase in March but decrease in September until 2060, when the oldest ice will have completely disappeared and the sea ice will reach an irreversible tipping point. Sea ice thickness is expected to decrease and transit in certain parts, declining by −0.22 m per decade after September 2060. Both the sea ice concentration and volume will thoroughly decline at decreasing decadal rates, with a greater decrease in volume in March than in September. Open water ships will be able to cross the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage between August and October during the period from 2045 to 2055, with a maximum navigable percentage in September. The time for Polar Class 6 (PC6) ships will shift to October–December during the period from 2021 to 2030, with a maximum navigable percentage in October. In addition, the central passage will be open for PC6 ships between September and October during 2021–2030.
Highlights
The Arctic has experienced significant warming since the 1970s (Connolly et al, 2017)
In addition to the classical pathways, such as SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) provides a variety of new selections
According to historical development and scenarios, sea ice will retreat in the future with a more significant decreasing trend in September
Summary
The Arctic has experienced significant warming since the 1970s (Connolly et al, 2017). Along with the increasing surface air temperature, Arctic communities have experienced unprecedented changes, such as reduction of sea ice extent and thickness, loss of the Greenland ice sheet, decrease in snow coverage, and thawing of permafrost (Biskaborn et al, 2019; Box et al, 2019; Brown et al, 2017; Loomis et al, 2019). The sea ice extent has declined at a rate of approximately 3.8 % per decade. Perennial ice had a higher proportion of loss of approximately 11.5 % per decade during the period from 1979 to 2012 (Comiso and Hall, 2014). Continued declines in sea ice have been projected by the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 in the Arctic through the end of the century (Meredith et al, 2019)
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