PERBANDINGAN HASIL PERAMALAN JUMLAH WISATAWAN MANCANEGARA DENGAN METODE BOX-JENKINS DAN EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING

Abstract

Forecasting the number of tourist visits is needed by tourism businesses to provide an overview of the number of tourists in the future so that problems that might occur can be overcome properly. This study aims to compare the results of forecasting the number of foreign tourists using the Box-Jenkins and Exponential Smoothing methods. There are two data used, namely data on the number of foreign visitors visiting Indonesia from January 2008 to December 2017 (Data I) and Bali according to the entrance of Ngurah Rai Airport from January 2009 to March 2020 (Data II). The best forecast results are obtained by comparing the Root of Mean Square Error (RMSE) values. The comparison of forecasting results in Data I shows that the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing method is more appropriate to predict the number of foreign tourists visiting Indonesia because it has a smaller RMSE value. While, the results of forecasting periods 2 and 3 in Data II show results that are far different from the original data. After tracking, it turns out this is caused by an unexpected factor, the Covid-19 pandemic which caused the number of tourists to drop significantly during this period.