Peak energy consumption and CO2 emissions in China

Abstract

China is in the processes of rapid industrialization and urbanization. Based on the Kaya identity, this paper proposes an analytical framework for various energy scenarios that explicitly simulates China׳s economic development, with a prospective consideration on the impacts of urbanization and income distribution. With the framework, China׳s 2050 energy consumption and associated CO2 reduction scenarios are constructed. Main findings are: (1) energy consumption will peak at 5200–5400 million tons coal equivalent (Mtce) in 2035–2040; (2) CO2 emissions will peak at 9200–9400milliontons (Mt) in 2030–2035, whilst it can be potentially reduced by 200–300Mt; (3) China׳s per capita energy consumption and per capita CO2 emission are projected to peak at 4tce and 6.8t respectively in 2020–2030, soon after China steps into the high income group.