Peak coal in China: A literature review

Abstract

Coal is the main energy resource in China. However, currently there is an overcapacity of coal; this is problematic in relation to sustainability, emphasizing the importance of research on peak coal. This paper presents a comprehensive overview of the research conducted on peak coal and summarizes the influencing factors, forecast methods, and forecast results of peak coal. This review has ascertained that the key premises of peak coal forecasts mainly rely on historical coal production and reserves, which excludes the effects of other factors such as the market, resource, technology, environment, transport, safety, new energy and policy. In addition, the data standards and ports of the historical data are not uniform, and the scenario analysis forecasting method is less than the trend extrapolation forecasting method. All of our findings demonstrate great deviations between the forecasting outcomes and the actual situations of China’s peak coal. The use of realistic factors of China’s situation should be a precondition to improving the distortion of the current forecasting of peak coal. These factors should include the macroeconomic slowdown, forced carbon emission reductions, supply-side reforms, and new energy shocks, which will be the key constraints in remodeling the forecasts of peak coal.